Needham Sees Strong Mature-Node Semiconductor Demand as Industry Upcycle Broadens
Rising chip sales, firm memory prices and higher wafer equipment imports point to improving momentum across mature-node semiconductor manufacturing.
Needham’s latest semiconductor equipment tracker points to continued strength across mature-node manufacturing, with improving global chip sales and firm memory pricing supporting the broader semiconductor cycle. The 33rd Semicap Tracker, which incorporates July equipment import data from South Korea, Taiwan and China, as well as semiconductor sales through June and memory spot prices through 21 August, indicates that industry momentum strengthened during the latest reporting period.
Global semiconductor sales accelerated in June, with the 12-month moving average reaching 7.49%, its strongest level since 1984. Needham said the current upcycle resembles the 1984 semiconductor boom, particularly because memory remains a major driver of industry growth. Silicon manufacturing sales also increased, rising 7% year on year and 9% quarter on quarter during the second quarter of 2026. Wafer shipments increased across all foundries, with Silicon MSI now only around 4% below its third-quarter 2022 peak. If current conditions continue, it could exceed that previous high during the second half of 2026.
Memory markets are also showing signs of continued strength. DDR5 DRAM spot prices reached new record highs almost daily in August, while NAND prices recovered after weakening at the beginning of the month. Needham suggested that the improvement in NAND pricing may have supported recent relative strength in Lam Research compared with Applied Materials and KLA.
Semiconductor equipment demand also improved across major Asian manufacturing hubs. The three-month moving average of wafer fabrication equipment imports into South Korea, Taiwan and China increased 5% in July from the previous month. China recorded the strongest increase, with imports rising 14%, while Taiwan posted 1% growth and South Korea saw a 1% decline. On a year-to-date basis, combined equipment imports across the three markets were 14% higher than in 2025.
The latest figures also highlight growing opportunities in mainstream and mature-node semiconductor manufacturing. Needham maintained Buy ratings on Cohu, Kulicke & Soffa and BE Semiconductor Industries, pointing to tightening supply conditions for mainstream chips. The firm also retained a Buy rating on Applied Materials, while maintaining a Hold rating on Axcelis Technologies. The tracker has additionally been updated to include TSMC capital expenditure data following changes to the level of quarterly disclosure on board-approved capital appropriations.
Overall, the data suggest that the semiconductor recovery is broadening beyond leading-edge AI-related production. Strong memory demand, improving wafer shipments, rising equipment imports and tightening mature-node supply are creating a more balanced environment for semiconductor manufacturers and equipment suppliers.
